Energy Center Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections

MoDNR Topics

Report an Environmental Problem

Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections for Missouri, 1990-2015

Introduction PDF
Chapter 1 PDF
Chapter 2 PDF
Chapter 3 PDF
Chapter 4 PDF
Chapter 5 PDF
Chapter 6 PDF
Glossary PDF
Technical Reviewers PDF

The Greenhouse Gas Trends and Projections Report is published in PDF format. First-time users need to download the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to be able to view or print PDF formatted publications. Please contact the Energy Center to receive a printed copy of the report.

For several decades, atmospheric scientists and climatologists have discussed the possibility that human activities such as fossil fuel use may increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, affecting global climate. This report estimates the level of greenhouse gas emissions from all sources in Missouri in 1990, maps trends in these emissions from 1990 through 1996 and projects possible levels for greenhouse gas emissions from all Missouri sources in 2015.

The study tracks four greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and perfluorinated carbons (PFCs). Between 1990 and 1996, emissions of these four gases from all anthropogenic (human-related) sources in Missouri increased by about 13 percent, from about 148 million tons in 1990 to about 168 million tons in 1996.

Chapter 1 summarizes the study and updates information from the 1996 report, Inventory of Missouri Estimated Greenhous Gas Emissions in 1990. Chapter 2 focuses specifically on trends in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use. Fossil fuel use is by far the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Missouri, and its share has been increasing. In 1996, energy-related CO₂ emissions accounted for nearly 80 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, compared to about 75 percent in 1990. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel use, especially from the burning of coal to generate electricity, increased by about 22 million tons between 1990 and 1996.

Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 project the likely level of energy-related emissions in 2015 under several "business-as-usual" scenarios. These scenarios all assume there will be no change in policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but differ in methodology and in assumptions about future use of natural gas in the utility sector. Under all scenarios, increased fossil fuel use is expected to be the driving force behind an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions.

Chapter 5 analyzes trends and projections in emissions from sources other than fossil fuel use. Total greenhouse gas emissions from these sources in 2015 are projected to be about equal to total emissions in 1990, although some sources are projected to increase, while others decrease, over the 25-year period. The study projects that increases in emissions from some sources such as CO₂ from limestone use and methane from swine and beef operations will offset decreases in other sources such as PFCs from aluminum manufacture and methane from landfills and dairy operations. Chapter 6 estimates the degree to which biomass growth in Missouri forests, which leads to sequestration of carbon, offsets increasing emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.