Missouri Drought Assessment Committee

Drought Assessment Committee Meeting - Jan. 23, 2003

Attendees:

Missouri Department of Natural Resources – Larry Archer, Deana Cash, Sherry Chen, Kerry Cordray, Joe Engeln, Sharon Hankins, Mubarak Hamed, Steve McIntosh, Bill Price and Jeff Staake

Missouri Department of Conservation – Bob Miller

Missouri Department of Economic Development – Andy Papen

Missouri Department of Agriculture – Dave Dillon, Tony Hoover, Lowell Mohler, Sally Oxenhandler

University of Missouri-Columbia – Adnan Akyuz, Pat Guinan, Joe Horner, Vern Pierce

US Department of Agriculture/NRCS – Cliff Baumer

US Geological Survey – Mike Slifer

Missouri Agricultural Statistical Service – Gene Danekas, Marlowe Schlegel

Farm Services Agency – Tim Kelly

Media Representatives:

Rob Sandler, Associated Press

Ray Scherer, St. Joseph News-Press

KLIK, Radio

Welcome and Introductions:

Jeff Staake, Missouri Department of Natural Resources.

Climate and Weather Committee Drought Recommendations:

Current Drought Status Review - Steve McIntosh, Missouri Department of Natural Resources

US Drought Monitor – Conditions have gotten worse through winter months with extreme drought in northwest Missouri extending to severe drought in western Missouri.

Thompson River stream flow has dropped below the calculated 7- day Q 10 the flow expected to occur only once in 10 year once in December and twice January 2003. Spring River near Waco, Mo., has not had its normal winter recovery. Even the Mississippi River at Chester Ill., is experiencing low flows with navigation being stopped on the Mississippi River for a short period in early January.

Alluvial groundwater levels have been decreasing, except during navigation releases, for more than 500 days. Lack of water in the alluvium will decrease water recharge to wetlands, flow back to the river, and streams in the bottoms. Last year Missouri River water temperatures went above 90 degrees Fahrenheit for several days in August. This may cause aquatic life standards not to be met and may require less power generation due to temperature exceedences brought on by low Missouri River flows. High water temperature effects decreases dissolved oxygen levels.

2002 Missouri River Intake Temp at Select Locations – exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit for water will lower dissolved oxygen levels

Groundwater Level Observation Network at Jameson does not show a traditional winter aquifer recovery. The current soil moisture anomaly is 140 millimeters in northwest Missouri. This is the worst anomaly today anywhere in the U.S.

Steve presented the Climate and Weather Committee’s drought status map recommendation. A motion made and accepted to adopt the Drought Condition Status map dated 01/21/03 as the current DAC map of January 22, 2003.

Lowell Mohler – proposed sending this packet of information to congressional staff.

Economic Impact Team Fiscal Analysis:

Impacts of 2002 Drought – Lowell Mohler of the Missouri Department of Agriculture discussed the losses on corn and soybeans. Total agricultural losses are over $460 million. We had significant losses for corn, soybean and livestock production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture helped significantly with the livestock assistance packages. Lowell complemented Tim Kelly of the FSA on the fastest relief package ever delivered to Missouri producers. There is hope to pass emergency disaster relief for US Senate. Senator Bond is discussing with offsets from current appropriations

Approximately over $5 billion in relief nationwide maybe achieved.

See attachment below.

Disaster Assistance Update – Tim Kelly, Farm Services Agency

Initiated an Emergency Conservation Program (ECP). This program is designed to provide assistance for livestock producers facing severe water shortage. There is a 50% to 60% cost-share assistance to put in pipelines and help with emergency water pumping to provide water to livestock.

There are 28 counties in Northwest and Western Missouri that have received approval for the ECP. Current allocations amount to nearly $2.7 million. Getting requests almost daily and expect to receive many more counties into the program.

Livestock Compensation Program (LCP) is designed to help livestock producers who suffered loss of pasture and hay due to the 2001 and 2002 drought. There has been more than $62 million paid to Missouri producers in every county in the state. Payments were based on a fixed payment of $18/head for cattle, sheep, goats, beefalo and buffalo owned by producer for at least 90 days on June 1, 2002.

Congress is currently looking at a crop disaster package, which would provide some assistance to producers who suffered loss due to disasters declared in 2001 and 2002. FSA is confident that all of Missouri would be eligible to receive this package.

Mr. Mohler commented to Mr. Kelly of his appreciation regarding the quick turn-around on reimbursement in the Livestock Compensation Program.

Crop Update – Gene Danekas, Missouri Agricultural Statistical Service

Discussion of several maps and charts of topsoil moisture of adequate vs. surplus as of May 2002 through November 17, 2002. Gene discussed Missouri Corn/Soybean production. Corn is down 28 bushels compared to last year. We probably survived on subsoil moisture last year. Soybean crop was amazing – came up with an average yield even with conditions like this. We did not have a lot of rain, but spotty showers helped with soybeans since they require moisture at certain times in their growth cycle.

Livestock Update -

Joe Horner of University of Missouri Commercial Agriculture discussed pasture and range conditions. They took a five-year average by month and compared it to monthly average of 2002 and calculated what it took to maintain livestock. There were no yield estimates available on pasture just the impacts of less pasture and hay upon livestock production. Livestock compensation by the USDA was considered as an offset in the in the total $460 million of Missouri agricultural losses last year.

Proposal made to keep an eye on legislative assistance to help farmers

Critical issues at farm level are to maintain livestock population

Many instances of farmers hauling water to cattle

Outlook for 2003 – Pat Guinan, University Extension

Western half of the state is anywhere from moderate to extreme drought and has been 10 to 12 inches below normal for the past seven months and in some instances more than 12 to 14 inches below normal since June in areas of Northwestern Missouri. From 11/01/02 to 01/21/03, there has been some improvement in southwestern Missouri, although the far northwest has received less than ½ inch at this time. This is way below normal compared to 10 inches in the Bootheel area. There is a 40-inch disparity between NE and SE Missouri compared to a normal disparity of 20 inches.

Forecast over next few months indicates a moderate El Nino event-taking place. Northern and Western United States expecting above normal temps and the Gulf States are expecting below normal temps.

Precipitation forecast – above normal for Southern United States is expected, but still below normal for northern half.

Missouri falls right in the middle of the forecast and could go either way.

Some of the western states have been experiencing severe drought for the last three years. The best estimate of future moisture is the past climatologic records.

Agricultural Impact Team:

Tony Hoover, Missouri Department of Agriculture

Agriculture impact team is in place and will be meeting on a regular basis for 2003 season. There are about 880,000 acres of winter wheat planted. Condition is fair to good. Moisture will be needed for planting corn and soybeans in April and May. People were looking at what alternative they had if the drought continues. NRCS officials in NW Missouri stated that people were selling cattle. Ponds are dry and pastures were in very poor condition before winter set in.

Areas in SW Missouri reported poor pasture conditions due to overgrazing in the fall and conditions could be worse in the spring if rains didn’t bring adequate moisture. There is a concern that if the drought continues this year there could be a hay shortage next fall.

Several farmers expressing concern about putting out anhydrous ammonia fertilizer with the lack of moisture. Without moisture, the fertilizer will evaporate and be of little use for crops. Planning to watch NW Missouri region very close this year since they produce 25% of our soybeans and 20% of our corn.

Water and Waste Water Impact Team:

Deana Cash, Missouri Department of Natural Resources

MoDNR Regional offices have been checking water systems in the effected drought area weekly regarding lake levels and what they’re doing to supplement lake levels. Systems are being encouraged to pump from rivers when possible to supplement their reservoirs for the summer months when demand increases and also to have conservation ordinances in place. Groundwater supplies are being encouraged to monitor draw down and report to the Regional Office.

Cameron is at a critical level with less than 100 days supply left. They have instituted Phase 1 conservation measures and are lowering their pump on Lake 2. They are also pumping from Grindstone Creek.

Cass PWSD #7 estimates that they have about 200 days supply left.

Higginsville receives supplemental water supply from the Missouri River. They are pumping from the river into their reservoir and had to extend their intake screen further into the river since the river is down.

Kansas City also pumps from the Missouri River and has requested that the Corps of Engineers increase their upstream release from Gavins Point due to the low river level and the loss of flow from frozen tributaries upstream. The Corps started releasing an additional 2000cfs on Thursday the 16th and plans to continue the additional release until Friday the 24th.

Most of the lakes in Northwest Missouri are down, but majority of them have alternate supplies and some are able to pump from rivers to supplement their reservoirs. However, the rivers are also down or frozen which causes further difficulty. The PDWP and Regional Offices are encouraging suppliers to pump in the spring to put additional water in storage. Corps of Engineers will be evaluating Missouri River levels daily

Groundwater levels in Southern Missouri do not seem to have greatly recovered from the drought of 1999-2000.

Springfield has been pumping from Stockton Lake to supplement their reservoirs since November.

Jeff Staake noted that approximately 50% of the state’s population gets their drinking water from the Missouri River and alluvium. With the drought in the western states and no recharge, conservation measures need to be followed. Joe Engeln commented that greater groundwater reliance and high population growth in Southwestern Missouri also adds to the groundwater depletion problems.

Natural Resources/Environment Impact Team:

Bob Miller, Missouri Department of Conservation

This is a newly added impact team. MDC has considered relocating some of their fish at the hatcheries due to drought. Forestry Division is putting a team their own drought team. There has bee a loss of about 25,000 trout due to increased water temps and dissolved oxygen problems. For first time in many years, we’ve had to buy trout to meet demand of the public.

There has been a 4% reduction in sales and a loss of fish in private ponds.

Attached Economic Analysis:

Drought Team:

We have completed estimates of the 2002 drought impact on Missouri. There are two files attached: "Drought Assessment Estimate for 2002: - the estimate and introduction "Drought methods for 2002 estimate" - the basic assumptions made for the estimate.  We have included the latest statistical information available and updated through the FAPRI models. If you have any questions, please let us know.

Vern Pierce
Joe Horner

Commercial Agriculture Program University of Missouri

2002 Drought Assessment Estimate

Purpose:

  • The drought of 2002 caused tremendous financial hardship to many Missouri crop and livestock producers. In turn, the financial impact of the drought on producers rolled over into their local communities and the state in terms of reduced economic activity. Government agencies responded with targeted aid programs, however, producers have been left less than whole financially. The purpose of this report is to estimate the economic impact of the 2002 drought on Missouri producers and the communities in which they live.

Methods:
  • The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at The University of Missouri estimated production trend lines in corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sorghum, rice, and hay. These baselines were compared to crop reports for the 2002 farm production year to estimate the unrealized production. These production losses were combined with FAPRI price estimates to determine lost farm revenue.
  • Members of The University of Missouri Commercial Agriculture Program compared reported 2002 pasture conditions against a 5-year trend line to determine the costs associated with extra hay feeding required as a result of the drought by Missouri cattlemen and dairymen.
  • The cost of additional new farm water systems was estimated based upon the signup for FSA assistance.
  • Estimated crop and livestock losses were combined then reduced by the amount of the USDA Livestock Compensation Program, as of Jan. 15, 2003 and the FSA livestock water cost share program as of Jan. 15, 2003.
  • The multiplier affect of the direct farm losses was estimated to determine the final impact of the 2002 drought on producers, their local economies, and the state.

Results
  • Crop Loss                                         $244,377,0721
  • Pasture Loss                                     $ 68,022,1482
  • USDA Livestock Compensation       (-) $ 62,207,0003
  • Livestock Water System Expenses       $ 2,550,9924
  • FSA Livestock Water Cost Share      (-) $ 1,275,4965

Economic impact on the state of Missouri

Loss in Economic Activity

  • Direct Effect:                       $ 251,467,716
  • Multiplier Effects in Economy 209,272,859
 

Total Drought Impact       $ 460,740,575

Methods used in determining pasture loss in Missouri’s 2002 Drought Assessment

The loss to Missouri cattlemen from feeding hay to replace drought damaged pastures during the 2002 pasture season is estimated to be $68,022,148, with most of the expense coming in the late summer to early fall.

The losses by month are as follows

July             $ 7,394,883
August        $16,486,952
September   $16,257,967
October       $27,882,346

Assumptions

1.) Pasture condition reports were averaged by month for the last 5 years. For each month in which the total percentage of pastures in "poor" and "very poor" condition in Missouri in 2002 exceeded the five- year average for that month, pastures were designated to be in "drought".

2.) The cattle herd was assumed to be evenly distributed across Missouri’s pastureland, i.e. every 1% of pastures designated in "drought" in Missouri were assumed to carry an equal 1% of the state’s total cattle herd.

3.) The hay needed for replacing lost pastures was estimated using the following assumptions:

  • One animal unit, AU, is equal to 1000 pounds of body weight.
  • One AU consumes 2.6% of its body weight in dry matter, or 26 pounds of dry matter/day. Hay is 88% dry matter. Thus one AU consumes 29.54 lbs of as-fed material per day, when fed only hay. Assuming a 10% hay feeding loss, yields a total hay requirement of 32.49 pounds/day or 975 pounds per month or 0 .4875 tons per AU per month, when fed only hay.
  • In designated drought pastures, 80% of the dry matter needs of the animal units were assumed to be met by feeding hay.

4.) Those cattle in designated drought areas were assumed to be fed hay valued at the USDA, MASS statewide average "all hay" price for that specific month. The pasture losses were estimated from May through October 2002.

These updates will be available at our Web site (/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm) or call 800-361-4827.

The next DAC meeting is not presently scheduled.  Need to wait and see if need dictates. Possibly have one in February given that there doesn’t seem to be much sign of improvement in northwestern Missouri.

Mr. McIntosh announced that minutes of the meetings would be posted on the Website.


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