Missouri Drought Assessment Committee

Drought Assessment Committee Meeting - Oct. 9, 2003

Attendees:

Bob Bailey, Deana Cash, Sherry Chen, Kerry Cordray, Gene Danekas, Harold Decker, Scott Dummer, Jerry Edwards, Judy Grundler, Pat Guinan, Mubarak Hamed, Tony Hoover, Steve McIntosh, Bob Miller, Bill Price, Kelly Smith and Jeff Staake

Agencies and Companies Represented:

State Emergency Management Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Weather Service/St. Louis, US Department of Agriculture, Missouri Farm Bureau, University of Missouri-Columbia Agricultural Program and the Missouri Departments of Agriculture, Conservation and Natural Resources

Welcome and Introductions - Jeff Staake, Dept of Natural Resources

Jeff congratulated Tony for his excellent contributions to the DAC. Tony Hoover will be moving from the Missouri Department of Agriculture to go to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Climate and Data Committee Report  - Current Conditions and Outlook:

Mr. Pat Guinan of the University of Missouri agricultural extension service presented the U.S. Drought Monitor map and noted that the long term drought in northwest Missouri has been going on for about 2 years. The longer-term soil moisture deficit 60 days to 2 years are as low as 50 % of normal in NW Missouri. The drought Severity index by division – Long Term Palmer

Shows wet conditions in the east and dry out west. Since the Palmer Drought index uses a lot of area that has several opportunities to have different weather regimes the index can be very misleading. When they calculate these figures, they combine precipitation for several districts. Excessive rain in the Kansas City area of Missouri was figured into total along with northwest Missouri.

Mr. Scott Dummer, hydrologist with the National Weather Service questioned Pat on how the climate districts were created. Pat stated that the state climatologist came up with the climate districts back in the 50’s. The present districts followed the geographic areas of commonality. What would be more ideal would be along the same lines as what USDA uses. However, back in the early 90’s we had requested that climate districts be changed, but request was denied. The NCDC were not able to change the program due to problems with all the data being collected in the past under the present district scale.

Mr. Staake asked due that due to advances in computer software since the early 90’s, would it be possible to put that request in again? With advance of technology, the programming should be easier. Mr. Guinan agreed that using the present USDA breakout would give a better representation of scale and coincide better with crop reporting activities of the USDA which are important in determining drought impacts upon agriculture.

Mr. Gene Danekas noted that we might lose the history of the climate districts unless they can reprogram the system to be able to throw in the old data. Pat noted that since the data is collected on a county basis it would be possible to include the history. Jeff stated that if we can improve our ability to monitor drought we should try it. Mr. Dummer of the National Weather Service agree as they use climate districts but need smaller sized districts to be more accurate too.

Mr. Staake – Proposed and the DAC agreed that we should develop a proposal for change for the Drought Palmer index to be submitted to NCDC.

Mr. Guinan noted that NW Missouri still lacked rainfall in September. See September rainfall map below. Total Precipitation department from mean ranges from 19-24 inches from 9/1/01 to 9/1/03. Northwest Missouri is the bulls-eye for the drought. The last two years is very comparable to 2-year drought from 9/1/87 to 9/30/89 and earlier from 9/1/54 to 9/30/56. The geographic extend ion 1950’s was much worse than what is going on now for Missouri, Kansas, Iowa but northwest Missouri has the same type of rainfall deficit as in those record drought years.

The climate outlook is predicting temperatures above normal with precipitation below normal over the next three months. Scott Dummer noted that the National Weather Service is working on more realistic problematic long-term river forecasting which will help drought planning. That since Mr. McIntosh attended the National Weather Service attended their advanced weather forecasting workshop in Davenport Iowa this month that the NWS has decided to put the Grand River Basin in Missouri on their top priority list for AHPS modeling development this next year. The APHS modeling will assist in responding to the current drought situation by forecasting the probably of stream flows to remain low for better drought response and preparation.

Impact Team Reports

Mr. Tony Hoover, Dept of Agriculture, Introduced Judy Grundler, who will be his replacement on the committee. Judy is the Program Administrator of Integrated Pest Management with the Plant Industries Division. Discussion of Aflatoxin Survey – When aflatoxin levels exceed 20 parts per billion it is not safe for human consumption, but may be used in certain types of animal feeds. For more information you can go to www.mda.mo.gov or call 573-751-4211.

There have been 162 samples checked for aflatoxin by the Missouri State Feed Control Laboratory with 62 more samples to be completed.

Structural damage on homes – SEMA and insurance agents are not aware of any sources for money to assist. Calls that Tony Hoover has received have been from Kansas City area. Example: A home built in 1958 had tuck-pointing done that has now opened up about a ½ inch due to drought. Many homes have also received damage to foundations and basement walls.

Damage Assessment Reports for 39 counties – covers the complete Northwest Missouri area.

Damage Assessment Reports for 40 counties – second set requested covered more central Missouri with a few counties in far Southwest and Southeast Missouri.

Governor had requested FSA do Damage Assessment Reports for all Missouri counties, but some counties did not meet criteria. Producers and farmers meeting the criteria may qualify for low interest loans through FSA.

Congress would have to be involved for anything more, such as grants.

Missouri Agricultural Statistics Service – Gene Danekas, Highlights include

Agricultural Summary - The Missouri corn harvest is progressing at a normal pace while the harvest of soybeans, sorghum and cotton is well behind normal. Abnormally cool weather and heavy dew slowed the drying of row crops in many areas. An average of 5.9 days was suitable for fieldwork. The topsoil moisture supply was reported as 5 percent very short, 13 percent short, 80 percent adequate and 2 percent surplus, with the northwest district indicated as the driest area at 50 percent short or very short. Subsoil moisture is rated at 12 percent very short, 30 percent short and 58 percent adequate.

Field Crops Report – Ninety-seven percent of the corn has reached maturity, slightly behind last year and the five-year average. Sixty-nine percent of the corn has been harvested, 5 days behind last year but a day ahead of average. Harvesting progress varies from 44 percent complete in the northeast district and 53 percent north central, to 92 percent west central and 97 percent in the southeast district. Seventy-six percent of the soybeans are dropping leaves or beyond, 2 days behind average, but the proportion mature at 44 percent is 6 days behind both last year and average as the drying process progressed slowly during the cool weather. More than 50 percent of the beans in the northern third of the state are mature while the southern third ranges from about 13 percent mature in the southwest and south-central districts to 26 percent in the southeast. Condition of the crop is rated as 19 percent very poor, 27 percent poor, 32 percent fair, 18 percent good and 4 percent excellent, virtually unchanged from a week earlier. Thirteen percent of the soybeans are harvested, a week behind both last year and the 5-year average of 25 percent. Progress of the bean harvest ranges from 7 percent or less in the southwest and south-central districts to 20 percent in the northeast. Seventy-nine percent of the sorghum is mature, about a week behind both last year and the average of 90 percent mature. Condition of the crop is rated as 6 percent very poor, 22 percent poor, 41 percent fair, 27 percent good and 4 percent excellent, similar to a week ago.

Forty-seven percent of the sorghum is harvested, also about a week behind both last year and normal. Eight-two percent of the cotton crop has bolls opening, four days behind last year and two weeks behind the average of 98 percent, as cool weather has continued to slow the defoliation and drying of cotton. Condition of the crop is rated as 3 percent very poor, 8 percent poor, 36 percent fair, 45 percent good and 8 percent excellent, virtually unchanged from a week earlier. Twelve percent of the cotton is harvested, eight days behind a year earlier and over two weeks behind normal. Rice is 68 percent harvested, three days ahead of last year but a day behind average. Fourteen percent of the winter wheat acreage for next year’s crop has been planted, two days behind both last year and the average of 17 percent. Progress ranges from 8 percent or less in the northeast and southwest districts to 20 percent in the southeast. Wheat is just beginning to emerge, with moisture conditions favorable for giving the crop a good start in most areas.

Pasture and Livestock – Pasture condition is reported as 7 percent very poor, 16 percent poor, 41 percent fair 32 percent good and 4 percent excellent, with growth continuing to re cover from the summer drought. Stock water supplies are rated as 8 percent very short, 25 percent short, 66 percent adequate, and 1- percent surplus, a major improvement from a month earlier but still a concern in many counties. The northwest district shows the lowers water rating at 93 percent short or very short.

Weather Summary – Temperatures over the state averaged sharply below normal, ranging from 6 degrees below normal at Corning to 14 degrees below normal at Cook Station, with most locations being 9 degrees or more below normal. Rainfall for the week averaged 0.37 inch, ranging by area from virtually none in the north-central and northeast districts to over 0.70 inch in the west-central and southwest districts. The monthly average for September at 4.41 inches is slightly above the 30-year average.

Public Water Supply:

Ms. Deana Cash, Dept of Natural Resources’ Public Drinking Water explained that

The Kansas City Region – no real critical problems. Some improvement due to decreased water use. No really significant improvements in lake levels. King City has been down and local farmers have been hauling water from Lake Limpe, which has taken some demand off the water supply. Middle Fork is looking for a potential well site to supplement their lake.

Creighton – still significantly low. They have a potential to connect to Cass Co PWSD #11.

In the Northeast region, Milan’s lakes have held pretty steady, but they have stopped serving Sullivan County indefinitely. Lake Elmwood, their main lake, is 10-½ ft down and the Golf Course Lake is 5 ft down. When we did the recalculation last week, they have approximately 200 days left which should put them into May. There should be some runoff in the spring to fill the reservoirs. Rural Development did waive 30-day permit process. They had thought about temporarily damming up Locust Creek. But they would have been required to get Permit 404. They have been able to use temporary pumps. Mr. Bailey wondered if the bidding process included installation of the pipeline? He wondered about the project due date because a worker told him they should be done by December and it was his understanding that it would be next spring.

Spring rains should help, if we can get them.

Bob Miller commented that Lake Limpe has been pumping for six weeks and providing to local producers to haul for livestock. Significant impact and state loss for hunting trips. Nodaway Valley in Andrew and Holt are in same situation and are pumping from Nodaway River, yet are only able to pump after rain. Cooler temps in the oxbow lakes will allow higher oxygen.

Drought Status Map

Mr. Steve McIntosh, Dept of Natural Resources’ DGLS/Water Resources Program examined the comparisons of September 5 Drought Condition Status (DCS) map and October 6 DCS map

On the October 6 map the some of the counties in the north central area extending to eastern Missouri border were dropped, including Shelby, Monroe, Ralls, Pike, Lincoln, Audrain, Montgomery, Boone Callaway, Cole, Osage, Maries, Miller, Moniteau, Morgan and Camden Counties.

The Climate and Weather Committee also brought back several counties in the far southwest of the state including Jasper, Newton, McDonald, Barry and Stone Counties. Also the CWC brought back several counties in central eastern area Missouri including Crawford, Washington, St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, Perry and Iron Counties.

Because of the higher rainfall during September, we took out the few counties in north central to eastern Missouri that completed the strip across the state. Even though some of the northwestern states had received pretty good rainfall, the streams and groundwater recharge is still very low.

Farm ponds are dry. Perennial streams have been dry for almost a year.

Discussion and Approval

Mr. Jeff Staake, Dept of Natural Resources lead the discussions.

Gene Danekas commented that the eastern counties included are due to a more short-term drought and should probably not be included on this map. Hoover commented that in his time serving on the committee, he has never seen Missouri with a Phase 4 and but what could that do? How will that affect farmers? Steve McIntosh noted that the City of Cameron had shut off hauling water for all outside uses (livestock) by ordinance earlier this year due to predicted water shortfalls. In a Phase 4 situation, communities themselves may have to decide whom they’re going to restrict. Agricultural use is considered lower priority.

Danekas commented again that the island of counties in east central Missouri should not be included on this map since it’s a short-term situation. They’ve been off and on several times in recent months.

Staake questioned whether there were drinking water problems in the east central block of counties, to which Deana Cash replied that there were not.

Guinan – For those east central counties, the impacts may not be felt as strongly in the agricultural sense as northwest Missouri, but it’s still dry down there. It may be short term at the moment, but this COULD end up being long term and made the recommendation that those counties stay in. The eastern counties were included with a provision that they be marked as short-term impacts.

These updates will be available at our Web site (/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm) or call 800-361-4827.

The next DAC meeting is scheduled for November 13, 2003 from 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon at Katy Trail  Conference Room, 1738 Elm St, Jefferson City, MO.  

Mr. McIntosh announced that minutes of the meetings would be posted on the Website.


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