MoDNR Topics
Missouri Drought Assessment Committee
Drought Assessment Committee Meeting - Nov. 13, 2003
Attendees:
Deana Cash, Sherry Chen, Scott Dummer, Jerry Edwards, Paul Flamm, Judy Grundler, Pat Guinan, Mubarak Hamed, Charles Hays, Bruce Hensley, Mike Keith, Chris May, Steve McIntosh, Jeff Staake and Bobby Williams
Agencies and Companies Represented:
North Central Missouri Electric Cooperative in Milan, Premium Standard Farms, Sullivan County PWSD #1, Sullivan County, National Weather Service, University of Missouri Extension Center, US Army Corps of Engineers and the Missouri Departments of Agriculture and Natural Resources
Welcome and Introductions - Chairman Jeff Staake, Department of Natural Resources
Climate and Data Committee Report:
Mr. Scott Dummer, Hydrologist NWS
US Drought Monitor – Northern MO is back on D3 (extreme) status – general explanation of how we update the monitor and how it impacts us
Percent of Normal Precipitation 11/11/02 to 11/10/03 (one year)
Percent of Normal Precipitation 11/11/01 to 11/10/03 (two year)
Drought Severity Index by Division (climate division) as of 11/8/03 – Long Term Palmer
Long Term Drought Indicator Blend Percentiles as of 11/1/03
Possibility of requesting changes in climate division layout
Short Term Drought Indicator Blend Percentiles as of 11/1/03
Possibility of requesting changes in climate division layout
Daily Discharge of Locust Creek near Linneus, MO – well below median
Daily Discharge of Grand River near Gallatin, MO – well below median
Daily Discharge of Spring River near Waco, MO – well below median
Thompson River at Trenton, MO – well below median
Daily depth of monitoring well at Coffey – shows some recharge in Spring, but is still considerably low
Monthly Rainfall by County as of October 2003
Precipitation of rainfall for last 15, 30, 45 and 60 days]
Total Precipitation Departure from Mean in Inches from 10/13/03 to 11/11/03
Total Precipitation Departure from Mean in inches from 8/14/03 to 11/11/03
Precipitation Outlook for November 2003 – calling for below normal rainfall for eastern part of state.
Precipitation Outlook for December/January/February – calling for closer to normal rainfall
Impact Team Reports
Public Drinking Water Impact Team
Ms. Deana Cash Public Drinking Water Program, MoDNR
Northeast Missouri at Princeton – have been approved for funding for drilling a new well. Water levels in their current well have increased 2 to 3 feet.
Linn County PWSD #1 received emergency grant from Rural Development to drill another well. They have been running all four of the current wells to meet plant demand. Still looking for a well site. Part of their problem in the summer months was due to increased agricultural demands.
Brookfield Lake is approximately 7 ft down and Brookfield has been pumping from Yellow Creek to supplement their reservoirs. The Brookfield Lake, which is used to pump water into their reservoirs, is low and they are currently not pumping from the lake.
Milan – construction on permanent intake is held up. Previous bids came in too high. New plans were submitted to re-bid the project. This is being given high priority. Mr. Hensley commented that bids might be able to be opened next Monday, November 17, 2003. City is in financial straits. Tentative agreement with Lake Thunderhead to pump water from their reservoir allowing possibly two months worth of water supply. Have permission from all but two of the landowners. Ms. Cash estimating Milan could have enough water to last until late March 2004, hopefully into the spring rains so they may capture water from Locust Creek. Only seven percent of their consumers are self-reliant farmers. Over 90% of those people would be out of jobs in the community due to lack of water.
Sullivan Lake project – Mr. Staake and department representative had discussed with Representative Summers about the possibility of a regional lake a few years ago. This is in the process of moving to reality. It could affect wetlands, bird nesting sites, endangered species sites, historical sites, etc. There will be a lot of permitting and cultural resource issues involved, but it would provide for the long-term sustainability of water supply for many communities of Northern Missouri. Mr. Staake commented that DNR is committed to coming to the public and discussing these issues. Mr. Staake will initiate getting all the necessary representatives within the department and in other agencies together to make certain the North Central Regional Water Supply Commission and all involved have good communication and knowledge of what lies ahead and the need to work together to make this project happen.
Ms. Cash commented that the Kansas City Region did not experience a great improvement from recent rain events, yet they haven’t had a lot of deterioration since the last DAC meeting. Systems in that region are not in critical stage, which is considered less than 100 days of usable storage left in their reservoirs. Creighton, Drexel, Harrison County PWSD #1, Harrisonville, Jamesport, Maryville, King City and Middlefork have extremely low reservoir levels.
No reports of groundwater levels in that area, but usage is down.
Agriculture Impact Team
Ms. Judy Grundler, Missouri Department of Agriculture
Presented request adding Monroe County to Recommended Drought Status Map
Holden has already asked the US Department of Agriculture to declare 40 Missouri counties, primarily in northern and western Missouri, as disasters because of the severe drought conditions that have continued for several years in that part of the state. Request is still pending.
The Bootheel area is experiencing record yields. Record cotton crop in that area for three years in a row. Soybeans also.
In the northwest part of state, they have been doing organic certification inspections of field corn, specialty corn and soybeans. Neighboring fields varied from barren to adequate to good crop yields. A lot of hit and miss area rains did help some of the crops.
Aflatoxin figures are now compete and throughout the state there were 290 samples taken with 52 being positive. Not all were significant positives. Southeast Missouri region had 53 samples taken and zero (0) were positive, yet in northeast Missouri there were 75 samples taken with 13 positive.
When we’re in a drought status that is when we take these samples. Samples were taken from bins or trucks.
There were three very odd samples in Pike County that ranked the highest levels in the state. Decision was made for those grain crops to be destroyed. Not sure why aflatoxin figures spiked so high in Pike County; it’s unexplainable. However, it is on a river and some of the counties immediately surrounding it store grain there.
Higher price on the crop would create greater negative impact on results seen from the FAPRI October 2003 estimates of drought impact.
Paul Flamm had a question for City of Milan. Milan had apparently talked to SEMA but they hadn’t made an official declaration to the state for an emergency status. It would be doubtful that any other agencies would be able to assist if SEMA can’t.
Mr. Staake commented that if the Governor declared a disaster, there would be money freed up for assistance. It is his opinion that the "bar" is set so high to declare a disaster that it would probably require quite drastic results such as cattle dying and running out of water completely.
Mr. Flamm commented that SEMA would have to bring FEMA in and FEMA would then request the Army’s emergency assistance.
Mr. Staake said that the federal government is considering how to start mitigation earlier and more intensive. Disaster has to be bad to get SEMA involved, let alone FEMA.
General discussion between Mr. Hensley and Mr. Staake and other Natural Resources and Agricultural staff regarding issues.
Ongoing Drought Mitigation Studies, Base Flow Relations
Mr. Steve A. McIntosh, Water Resources Program, MoDNR
Total flows at Shoal Creek near Joplin have about 1/3 surface runoff to 2/3 base flow. The Thompson River at Trenton has just the inverse, 2/3 surface runoff to 1/3 base flow.
In 1954 drought year about 78% of the total flow was from base flow at Shoal Creek near Joplin while at the Thompson R. at Trenton only 8% of the runoff was from base flow. This is due to more spring flow from karst geology of Ozarks aquifer and more inter flow feeding surface water streams. The tighter Pennsylvanian formations of Northern Missouri cannot store nor yield large quantities of water.
Northern Missouri requires surface water runoff. Cannot depend on pumping from rivers during drought episodes due to lack of sustained base flows on north and west Central Missouri. Southern Missouri has been able to count on base flow for sustained water supplies even during drought episodes.
Mr. Hensley asked how difficult is that analysis to run on a specific stream such as Locust Creek? Locust Creek has a shorter period of record so information will not be as statically valid. From our experience base flow is also expected to be a very small portion of total runoff during drought episodes.
Chairman Staake asked how many stream flow gages are there on Missouri streams. There are about 70 streams across the state being monitored.
Mr. Dummer commented that another impact of drought during fall and winter would be barge travel on the Missouri and Mississippi. Critical point is when river is down 4 feet, then they halt navigation. Barge industry needs 8 feet in order to break even. When freezing occurs in northern states, it could make record all-time low at St. Louis and halt ALL navigation. Little base flow on upper Mississippi due to drought in Iowa, Minnesota, etc.
Chairman Staake commented that fifty percent of the state draws their water from the river or the alluvium. On the Missouri River it isn’t just a "barge vs. birds" issue. It’s a drinking water wastewater, and nuclear power plant issue.
Drought Status Discussion and Approval
Mr. Pat Guinan, Climatologist University of Missouri, Commercial Agriculture Program
Drought Condition Status as of 10/3/03
Some dryness across West Central Missouri and some in East Central Missouri down toward the Bootheel.
Recommended Drought Status as of 11/12/03 added several counties.
Far north Atchinson County did have spots of 4 to 5 inches of rains. Most of NW Missouri got one to 1.5 inches of rain.
It is highly likely that this area will still be in drought status next year due to normal climatology low rainfall and snowfall during the fall and winter seasons.
Best opportunity for northern Missouri will be in April, May and June. May and June would be best for North Central Missouri as summer rains are more frequent there. Best opportunity for putting a dent in this drought will come in April, May and June.
The CWC’s recommended drought map was adopted as presented.
These updates will be available at our Web site ( /env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm ) or call 800-361-4827.
Next Meeting –
Mr. Hensley offered to host next DAC meeting in their area on behalf of Milan in order to show the City of Milan’s and Northern Missouri issues. Steve McIntosh to work with Mr. Hensley to coordinate meeting times and dates.
Chris May wanted to thank everyone in the government agencies pulling together and working together better than ever. Appreciate your help.
Mr. Staake commented that feedback from the private and local government entities are valuable in order to provide assistance.
Suggestion made again to request that NOAA climate divisions be changed to reflect the USDA climate districts. Mr. McIntosh and Mr. Dummer will be working on this proposal to NOAA.
Mr. McIntosh announced that minutes of the meetings would be posted on the Website.
