MoDNR Topics
Missouri Drought Assessment Committee
Drought Assessment Committee Meeting - March 3, 2004
Attendees:
Adnan Akyuz, Bob Bailey, David Baker, Shane Barks, Deana Cash, Sherry Chen, HaroldDeckerd, Scott Dummer, Joe Engeln, Judy Grundler, Pat Guinan, Bruce Hensley, Mike Keith, Chris May, Steve McIntosh, Bryant McNally, Andy Papen, Jeff Staake, Clark Thomas and BobbyWilliams
Agencies and Companies Represented:
North Central Missouri Water Commission, Premium Standard Farms, Sullivan County Commission, Sullivan County Public Water Supply District, University of Missouri Extension, National Weather Service, USDepartment of Agriculture's Rural Development and Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), US Geological Survey, State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), Missouri Departments of Agriculture, Economic Development, Health and Social Services and Natural Resources.
Welcome and Introductions - DAC Chairman - Jeff Staake, Department of Natural Resources
Climate and Data Committee Report:
Adnan Akyuz, Missouri Climate Center
General discussion of all slides
- Thompson River January 2004
- Monthly Average Precipitation for MO (1971-2000)
- Monthly Average Temperature for Missouri (1971-2000)
- Monthly Average Temperature for Columbia (1971-2000)
- Historical February Temperature for Missouri
- Historical February Precipitation for Missouri
- February Temperature Departure from Normal Mean in Degrees
- February Precipitation Total Percent of Normal Mean in Degrees
- US Drought Monitor dated 2/24/04
- Drought Severity Index by Division - Long Term Palmer dated 2/21/04
General discussion about whether or not to use the Long Term Palmer as an indicator for our area since their index is so different from what we use for the State of Missouri
- Current Soil Moisture dated 3/1/04
- Objective Long-Term Drought Indicator Blend Percentile 2/14/04
General discussion about hydrologic vs. agricultural drought
General discussion regarding drastic differences from one county to the next in NW Missouri
- Objective Short-Term Drought Indicator Blend Percentile 2/14/04
As precipitation patterns change, this indicator changes quicker
- USGS Streamflow Map
Only using stations that have 30 years of record to compare from
- USGS - Osage River above Schell City, MO
Picking up all the drainage from the Osage River and the South Grand
Improvement in Western Missouri
- USGS - Grand River near Gallatin, MO
- Coffey Observation Well - shows some recovery probably due to recent snowmelt and low use
- Percent of Normal Precipitation for 30 days dated 1/31/04 to 2/29/04
- Percent of Normal Precipitation for 60 days dated 1/1/04 to 2/29/04
- Percent of Normal Precipitation for 90 days dated 12/2/04 to 2/29/04
- Percent of Normal Precipitation for 12 months dated 3/1/03 to 2/29/04
- Percent of Normal Precipitation for 24 months dated 3/1/02 to 2/29/04
- Percent of Normal Precipitation for 36 months dated 3/1/01 to 2/29/04
- Missouri County Precipitation Departure from Normal from 2/03 to 1/04
Impact Team Reports
Public Drinking Water Impact Team
Ms. Deana Cash Public Drinking Water Program, MoDNR
- Concerns of ice dams on the Missouri River didn't last long.
- Some public water supply systems were running longer hours with no damage to those supplies
- City of Boonville lost water service for a time. Loss of service was not due to drought conditions but due to difficulties incurred when trying to fix a pump. It took some time for them to determine what the problem was and get back on line. They received some assistance from Red Cross for distributing bottled water that was purchased by the City. The City also contracted water-hauling trucks to dump water into their clearwells to try to maintain adequate pressure.
- Milan - recent snowmelt has helped their situation. They were 7 ft 10 inches below normal and are now 4 ft 5 inches below normal. Pumping raw water from Lake Thunderhead into the Locust Creek has stopped due to adequate flows in Locust Creek. Premium Standard Farms is continuing to pump from Locust Creek into the Elmwood Reservoir, but demand has increased and the level of the reservoir is not increasing significantly due to pumping. Still need rain and runoff to fill the reservoir. Construction bid awarded for constructing the permanent intake into Locust Creek. Equipment is in the process of being ordered and they hope to start work this summer.
- Brookfield Lake is still down. Need to encourage them to pump from reservoirs.
- Linn County #1 is still trying to find a well location that will give them an adequate yield.
- In the Kansas City region, Middlefork is still about 150 inches below normal. They have about 90days of water left in their storage and are looking at pulling from the Grand River to supplement. They can't find a well to produce more than 45 gpm to supplement their reservoir.
- Middlefork has a higher tributary and doesn't get as much water.
- Bruce Hensley gave a small informational update on their situation in Milan.
- Premier Foods has started up another line. This is strictly a cooking plant at this time, but there is another company that wants to link into them to use as a deboning system, which would increase water supply demand.
- Means more jobs for the area, but also more taxing on the water system. Rural water is back in the system, which places additional supply demand.
- Trying to get the pumps fixed and delay construction of new pumping station. If we can get the construction company to hold off until June, we might be able to recuperate the reservoir before they hook up to it.
- Premium Standard Farms have offered to let Milan use their pumps. Currently PSF pumps with two 1-MGD pumps into the reservoir, and the city also pumps. The City's pumping has stopped due to pump failure. There is a need for pumps and piping capable of pumping greater than 1MGD.
- Need to do Band-Aid fixes until a larger water supply is available.
- No specific needs on pump. Non electric. Gas powered would be preferred. Need pump, fittings and piping.
- Ms. Cash commented that Everett Becker did suggest summer would be the best time to start construction on the intake structure when flows are low. If construction were to begin now, it will take approximately three months to get it constructed and by that time, the flow will likely be too low to pump. It may be more appropriate to keep temporarily pumping and make certain the permanent intake is ready to go when rains come next rain season.
The following is a subsequent report to Ms. Cash, which came from Jud Kneuvean with the US Army Corps of Engineers after the meeting. "Stages within the Kansas City District's reach have remained fairly stable over the past month; stages are on a slight uprise due to upstream snowmelt and last weekend's rains; base flows on the Missouri River and most tributary streams continue to be below normal, except for normal flows in the lower Osage River and other lower Missouri River tributaries. No problems with facilities have been reported since we last met; the one exception was Boonville, which experienced an equipment failure two weeks ago. At this time we are only anticipating an average chance for flooding in/and along the Missouri River this Spring."
Agriculture Impact Team
Ms. Judy Grundler, Missouri Department of Agriculture
- Discussion of Ms. Grundler's handout regarding Drought Effects from Trend Yield 2003
- Corn had a greater negative value in January.
- However, cotton and wheat had record yields this year, which offset the drought impact with respect to commodity yields and prices.
- The only thing we've got actively growing at this time is wheat. Most of the wheat has been fertilized. There was an increase in wheat planting in the northwest part of the state due to drought decisions. Wheat usually does well in drought conditions and was also a record yield for the state last year. Ms. Grundler reported more wheat being planted in the western part of the state and less in northeast.
- The only ground actually being worked at this point in time is in the Bootheel region. They are dryer than normal at this time of year and fields are being prepared.
- For planting considerations, after talking to sources in western part of state, some are considering less corn. Some producers are going into milo or sorghum. Nitrogen levels have been impacted. One of the pluses of drought situation regarding nitrogen means less nitrogen moving off the fields during rainfall.
- Some of the people in west central Missouri are seeing improvement in pond levels. Ponds in northwest Missouri are still a critical issue.
- Ms. Grundler provided a copy of a news release regarding grain-testing services being provided by the Dept of Agriculture.
- The Dept of Agriculture's Grain Inspection and Warehousing Division recently installed biopharm mycotoxin testing systems in each of its five inspection offices. The new systems test grain for the presence of mycotoxins, such as aflatoxin, vomitoxin and fumonisin. Mycotoxins are naturally occurring molds that attach to wheat, corn and sorghum.
- "Drought conditions we have experienced the past two years have stressed our grain corps, increasing the chance for molds, such as aflatoxin. These tests are an important safeguard for our harvest and food supply." (Larry Kitchen, administrator of department's Grain Inspection Services program, which administers the tests.)
- Grain bound for export markets is routinely tested for mycotoxins. With the installation of the new testing services, the same service is now extended to producers. Testing services are offered at the department's New Madrid, Laddonia, Marshall, Kansas City and St. Joseph offices.
- "This testing allows our customers the convenience of getting their grain tested at the same place it is graded," Kitchen said. "In addition, the test results indicate the level of an existing mycotoxin and help us map out an appropriate plan of action."
- This is the first time the state has been able to perform mycotoxin testing for fumonisin. Testing for aflatoxin was available at three of the state's grain inspection offices, while vomitoxin testing was offered at only one location.
- A recent test found aflatoxin in milk samples from a dairy herd in southwest Missouri. The cows had been fed drought-stressed corn containing aflatoxin.
- Producers should buy grain from a reputable source and ask if it has been tested.
- The Dept of Agriculture annually monitors feed and feed ingredients for aflatoxin. In 2003, aflatoxin was found in 52 of the 242 samples tested. The aflatoxin values ranged from 10 parts per billion to 920 parts per billion, with three samples exceeding 300 parts per billion.
- Anytime aflatoxin is found, the department notifies the facility and provides the Food and Drug Administration guidelines for safe use and proper disposal. If aflatoxin levels exceed 20 parts per billion the gain is pulled from the human food chain and may not be fed to dairy cattle.
Drought Status Discussion and Approval
Mr. Joe Engeln, Office of the Director, Missouri Dept of Natural Resources
General explanation and discussion of slides
- US Seasonal Drought Outlook through May 2004
- Climate Outlook for March to May 2004
- Five-Day Total Rainfall Accumulation Forecast from HPC (through this Saturday a.m.)
- Drought Condition Status dated 1/13/04
- Interim Drought Condition Status dated 3/1/04 - recommending dropping majority of Southwestern Counties due to recent precipitation
- Atchison County upgraded to Phase 2 and Saline and Pettis Counties were dropped
- Upcoming forecast looks very promising but not expected to be enough to help farm ponds in the northwestern Missouri area
- Mr. Staake suggested waiting to approve the drought status map until after this weekend's planned rain forecast to see if it will cause any change in the situation.
- Mr. Guinan and Mr. Engeln commented that this short-term recovery would not help the long-term situation.
- Mr. Engeln pointed out that this might be the typical spring storm where some areas will get hammered with rain and others will be sparse and dry.
- We're talking about a long-term hydrological drought and not an agricultural drought.
- Suggestion made to add "long-term hydrological drought as reflected in low ponds and stream flows NOT agricultural drought status" to the drought status map
- Motion made to adopt current Drought Status map
Climate Division Letter - Pat Guinan, University of Missouri
- Discussion of draft letter regarding changing climate districts in Missouri. The districts are too big. When they were done in the 1950's, they were based on topography and soil and we've come to realize that the districts should have been smaller to account for spatial variability in precipitation. Following the Labor Day Weekend rain event, Climate District #1 had 5 to 7 inches of rain in the southern part of the district, and less than an inch over northern portions of the district. There was no drought relief for northern counties in Climate District #1 yet the precipitation and drought maps based on climate division data were indicating significant drought improvement over all of Climate District #1.
- Recommend 9 districts in Missouri to match the USDA districts. We need signatures from various departments to encourage the director of the National Climatic Data Center, Tom Karl, to support the change. District #1 would go from 28 to 15 counties within the district.
- Proposal made in early 1990's to change districts from 6 to 9. Request was shot down due to difficulties in redoing the software modeling. Due to changes in technology it is our hope that it will be easier to accomplish this time. The change would better define Missouri's districts.
- Mr. Adnan Akyuz commented that they would have to go back and rework the historical data to reflect the change from 6 to 9 districts.
- Mr. Jeff Staake asked if we should request individual letters from departments and representatives in favor of this, or do we as the DAC do only one letter and provide a signature page for them to sign. One document with multiple signatures or a letter-writing campaign for many departments and representatives. Which would be the best way to facilitate encouragement of this change.
- Mr. Adnan suggested doing both.
- Mr. Engeln suggested one letter with multiple signatures. Mr. Dummer commented that this would be best for his department rather than doing an individual letter to one of their sister agencies of the federal government. It was suggested that one letter be sent to include signatures from MDA, MDC, Univ of MO, DNR, NRCS to allow all to speak in one voice on a common issue. However, some departments could also issue individual letters to further encourage the change.
- On the drought plan itself although DNR is the lead agency, it is considered to be a statewide committee. Would it be best to be put on a Governor letterhead instead of DNR letterhead?
North Central Missouri Regional Water Supply Lake
Mr. Steve McIntosh, Dept. of Natural Resources
- Recent meeting in Kansas City with Burns McDonnell who is the consultant for the regional water districts. Presented Burns McDonnell alternative for water districts.
- Discussed water demand needs. Assumption of 3% growth for Clarence Cannon Wholesale Water Commission to 1% growth for North Central Missouri done by the Water Resources Program of MoDNR. Clarence Cannon is selling to about half of the area of northeast Missouri amounting to approximately 10 counties and is closer to St. Louis area. So we thought the growth would be higher in CCWWC area than in NC Missouri. Two big demands in CCWWC are upscale residential areas by the lake and CAFO's going in. Concentrated dairies in that area are consuming more water supplies.
- CCWWC commented that cities are staying fairly the same. It's the rural water that is growing.
- Bruce Hensley noted that Everett Baker's work says peak daily usage for NC Missouri is from 7 mgd to 9.9 mgd.
- If the NC reservoir site on East Fork of Locus Creek is moved downstream to site C they only gained 6 sq. miles drainage area over the middle site, site B.
- 1000 Hills has more customers ready to purchase whenever increase goes through
- Premier Foods coming on line and more use will be required.
- If you have a lake there, then people will be coming into the area to develop.
- Mr. Hensley commented that City of Rathbun has come to the point that they feel they can no longer meet demand and are turning away new customers.
- Mr. McIntosh led discussion of handouts
- A water conservation pool of 920 feet above mean sea level means greater water level fluctuation at the top while 910 would allow less variability.
- If you have permanent pool at 910, most of the years would allow more than 5 feet of fluctuation
- Water supply is the preeminent goal, so don't make this as an argument not to go to 920 msl. You could get more yield, from 5.35 million gallons per day to 7.1 MGD, at 920 msl , but you'd also have more pool variation and shoreline fluctuation.
- Evaporation, seepage and downstream instream flow releases are figured into the simulations.
- Will be consulting w/ Deana Cash and Everett Baker to gain an operational point of view since each plant operates differently. Should be cautious about designing a water source in which the source fluctuates causing problems with low levels on the banks. Bank exposure causes challenges with silt, drainage, plant growth etc.
Open Discussion - Jeff Staake, Dept of Natural Resources
These updates will be available at our Web site ( /env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm ) or call 800-361-4827.
Next Meeting - The next DAC meeting is scheduled in two months April or May 2004 at Jefferson City, Missouri.
Mr. McIntosh announced that minutes of the meetings would be posted on the Website.
