MoDNR Topics
Missouri Drought Assessment Committee
Drought Assessment Committee Meeting - July 29, 2003
Attendees:
Adnan Akyuz, David Atkins, Deana Cash, Steve Cheavens, Sherry Chen, Chad Davis, Pat Guinan, Bruce Hensley, Kris Hilgedick, Tony Hoover, Mike Keith, Chris May, Steve McIntosh, Bryant McNally, Andy Papen, Brian Paulsen, Marlowe Schlegel, Ken Schneeberger, Ellis Shipley, Jeff L. Staake, Bob Steiert, Loyd Waite, Bobby Williams and Todd Williams
Agencies and Companies Represented:
Jefferson City News Tribune, Milan City Council, North Central Missouri Electric
Cooperative, Premium Standard Farms, State Emergency Management Agency, Sullivan
County Commission, Sullivan County PWSD #1, Trenton Municipal Utilities, University
of Missouri Columbia, UMC Commercial Agriculture Program/University
Extension, US Department of Agriculture (NASS), US Environmental Protection
Agency, US Geological Survey, and the Missouri Departments of Agriculture,
Economic Development, Health and Senior Services and Natural Resources
Welcome and Introductions:
Jeff Staake, Deputy Director Missouri Department of Natural Resources
Climate and Weather Subcommittee - Current Conditions and Outlook:
Adnan Akyuz of the Missouri Climate Center explained that the 12-month total precipitation departure from normal covering July 2002 to July 2003 and the 2-year (24-month) total precipitation have lead to the current soil moisture deficit of about 30 percent of normal in northwest and west Missouri. The objective short-term drought indicator blend percentiles of July 19 2003 also show dry conditions expanding into Missouri. Adnan showed the USGS stream gage map dated 7/28/03. By connecting through the internet you can then click on stream gage locations to pull up gaging station information for that particular site
Steve McIntosh led the discussion on stream gages. At the Thompson River at Trenton we have an approaching July low expected only once in 20 years. At the Spring River near Waco the stream flow stages are dropping off fast and comparable to last summer's drought. Coffee-Gallatin Water Supply Monitoring well appears to show impacts of droughts. Higher rainfall periods have a pronounced rise in groundwater levels at this monitoring well as water levels continue to fall.
Adnan explained the newer U.S. long-term drought indicator blend map. Again getting worse for northwest and west Missouri. Adnan had already received information, this week's US Drought Monitor map being changed to D2 Severe. When asked if things will get better Adnan explained that drought tends to sustain itself. Drought usually locked in by June or July lasts through the fall.
Impact Team Reports:
Natural Resources and the Environmental Impact Team
Impacts to Aquatic Systems
Bob Steiert of the U.S. EPA Region VII explained that conditions continue to worsen for communities relying on oxbow lakes for recreational income. A major fish kill occurred on Lake Contrary in late May. Low water conditions were a major contributor to this kill. Last week a significant fish kill occurred on Browning Lake, another Missouri River oxbow in Buchanan County, with low water conditions again a major contributor. At Sugar Lake in Buchanan County, the water level is also critically low. Missouri Dept of Conservation (MDC) continues to operate the aeration system in hopes of alleviating a fish kill. The Sugar Lake Sportsmen Club continues to pump water into the lake in hopes of raising the water level. There has also been a significant fish kill at Bean Lake in Platte County. If there were a source of outside (emergency) funding to assist these local groups in pumping costs (electricity), it would be most welcomed. MDC is assisting with some aeration, but these communities are spending much more this year than normal due to the ongoing effects of the drought. To these local communities recreation is their livelihood, not to mention the public health conditions if fish kills occur in these lakes with housing in the shorelines. The Natural Resources/Environment Impact Team recommends the Drought Assessment Committee pursue funding to assist communities with the necessary pumping and aeration costs. Many other lakes and streams in the region are lower than normal, but not at a critical point yet.
Forestry
Increased diseases are showing up due to hot and dry weather such as Dutch elm disease, oak wilt and Armillaria root rot. The anthracnose also hit the sycamore, ash and oak very hard this spring. The anthracnose is actually due to the wet conditions we had at bud break this year, but now dry conditions are adding to the stress of these trees. Finally, we are getting reports of very clorotic silver maple trees that may be drought related. There has been a higher percentage of anthracnose in maples, blights in pines and also insect damage. There has also been scale and pine adilgid reported this week. Timely rains have helped, but subsoil moisture is depleted and yard trees should be watered if the timely rains stop.
Wildlife
Ground nesting wildlife are having greater success because of the lack of heavy rains. Squaw Creek Refuge has been caught in the drought and has been working to ensure there will be adequate water this fall. In the past year, the gates to release water on the refuge have only been opened five times. The purpose of the releases was purely to move heavy rain-event water off the refuge due to the pollutants and trash that these waters carried. Typically a hard 3-inch rain would prompt the refuge manager to open the gates to avoid oils and grease among other pollutants/trash from settling in any of the pools. Ron Bell, the refuge manager tells that he only remembers one other time that a drought situation affected the refuge this way and that was in 1988/1989. But he still believes that in the last year the gates have been opened fewer times than any other year on record. The two main pools are almost at full pool for migration; they are a few tenths shy. Other surrounding pools are about 1.5 feet deep and also have about 15% wild millet. Provided there is adequate rainfall between now and late August, there should be sufficient water for migrating birds. So the general feeling of the refuge manager is that if the refuge receives a few timely rains in the next month and a half they will be able to provide high quality habitat for migrating shorebirds, waterfowl, large wading birds, and songbirds. As a last resort, the refuge can pump water from their 91-foot well but they are careful with this technique due to other competing interests for water in the area. All other Service Refuges are basically in good shape for the coming fall migration.
Recommended Action
Continue to monitor drought impacts. Request the Drought Assessment Committee to pursue funding opportunities for Northwest communities and entities that are required to pump from oxbows.
Public Water Supply Impact Team
Deana Cash stated that the cities of Creighton and Drexel reservoir levels have dropped significantly. They can make an emergency connection to Tri-County. Garden City and Middlefork reservoir water levels are also low. Other water systems of concern are Milan, Green City and Brookfield. These systems are not at a critical stage at this time. The tornadoes in southwest Missouri used resources normally available to water/sewer projects. Milan - Elmwood Lake is 8 ft 9 inches down and has 382.25 million gallons remaining in it. The Golf Course Lake at Milan is still 4.1 ft down and has 123.1 mg remaining in it. At a usage of 1.416 mgd the combined lakes have 357 days of service remaining, not including evaporation, but it will recalculate using more accurate water use, dead storage and account for evaporation. With evaporation, it could be only 250days. Lack of funds to allow outside purchase. They could possibly get water from Trenton or Green City, but it wouldn't be enough. Milan is observing voluntary water conservation. Still serving portions of Sullivan County that could go elsewhere, but their leaving wouldn't make a large dent in service, approximately 30 days of extra storage. The engineering review of the project for a permanent pumping intake in Locust Creek has been expedited. Brookfield - Brookfield Lake is 6.1 ft down because they have been pumping to it when Yellow Creek has flow. All storage reservoirs are full. Total available raw water is 467.31 mg, which gives 692 days of service at a usage of 675,000 gpd.
Green City - Green City Lake is 2 ft 10 inches down and has 149.533 mg remaining in the lake. At a daily usage of 102,604 gallons this gives 1457 days of service remaining. Linneus is now connected to Linn-Livingston PWSD #3 and Schuyler County PWSD #1 is now totally on Rathbun water. Princeton and Linn PWSD #1 have both received emergency grants from rural development to drill an additional well. Drought moving to southwest portion of the state. Springfield is at 75% of storage. Currently pumping from Stockton Lake; they could be in trouble otherwise.
Agricultural Impact Team
Tony Hoover announced that Director Mohler has retired. Peter Hofherr is new Director and Dave Dillon is the new Deputy Director. Dave Dillon had an interview at Hartsburg with KOMU along with Mr. Hilgedick (farmer) concerning the drought and effects it's going to have on the corn, soybeans and water supply for animals. Tony has spoken with several FSA/USDA, NRCS/USDA and farmers about the drought. Tim Kelley reported by phone that the rains have had similar patterns as last year and have been very spotty in Missouri. Hoover spoke with FSA Executive Directors in northwest MO and they reported that later planted corn is really showing the effects of the drought. And soybeans might also if we don't get some adequate moisture. USDA/NRCS reported that pasture conditions are very poor in many areas of the State and some ponds remain well below the normal level. Hoover let everyone know that Missouri Dept of Agriculture has a hay hotline and farmers needing hay can call in at 800-877-4429 to find hay in their area. The contact person is Mark Murphy. Everyone he spoke with is very concerned about the soil moisture deficiencies.
Crop Report: With the help of Gene Danekas and his staff. State Average - Soybeans at 52% Blooming, Soybeans at 14% setting pods, 90% of the corn is silked and 41% of the corn is at the dough stage. Corn conditions are still above the low ratings of a year earlier on this date, but distinctly below two years ago. Soybeans are slightly behind from last year. The lowest ratings reported are in the west-central district. Pastures in all districts except south central and southeast show significant declines from a week earlier. Poorest ratings are in the northwest and west central where 55% or more of the pastures were rated as poor or very poor (end of crop report). Calls coming in to MDA this week. Producers want to know if there will be any assistance this year if conditions continue to decline. The biggest concern the callers had was the poor pasture condition and reported that farmers have already started to feed hay in many areas of the state. Hoover thanked FAPRI and other agencies responsible for the model that was created to assess the damage from last year. Informed everyone that we may use that model again if we have major losses this year when all the numbers are finalized through FSA, MASS and other agencies responsible.
Drought Status Map
Pat Guinan of the University of Missouri/Commercial Agriculture lead the discussion of recommended drought condition status map. Discussion of DCS map dated 7/25/03. Some rainfall in June, but July has been bad - less than ½ inch of rain for the month for several counties. Most of the crops not looking good. West central Missouri has deteriorated in rainfall category. Conservation stage for northwestern counties because they have not recovered from last year's drought and are continuing in bad stages this year. Starting to feel agricultural impacts. The drought has returned to central Missouri. Rain events in last few days helped northeastern Missouri, but not near enough. Will not cause a change in drought status map. Newton, McDonald and Barry had good rains this last week. However, conditions can dry out quickly and we should kept an eye on these counties.
Missouri's has four different stages for drought. Our Phase 4-Emergency is probably a lot more stringent than Palmer Drought Index - never had to get to Phase 4 yet. Phase 1 is simply a "look out" phase. Phase 2 is "alert - planning" phase - take a closer look. Phase 3 we ask communities to start taking mandatory conservation measures in order to preserve water. No state statute allows us to do a mandatory conservation measure. Just an advisory capacity. Mandatory measures need to be passed on a local level. We provide help where needed. Have not had a Phase 4 since this plan was in effect.
Northwest Missouri is running 15 inches or so below normal for the past year. With empty livestock ponds, we would have to have above normal rainfall for an extended period to get close to normal again.
The corn belt, with exception of Missouri, looks good right now, because they've had more rainfall. Northeastern corner of Missouri has been clipped with rainfall a few times, and crops look better in that region.
Wintertime precipitation is lower in northwest Missouri. Southern Missouri has better chance of getting out of a drought during the winter because they have more precipitation. The stream gage for Trenton and Thompson River shows higher flows might commence in February. Wettest months are usually June and July. Should be stockpiling then. At Milan, they've just passed a conservation ordinance, which is currently in effect. Trigger was that they felt they were down to 150 days in main reservoir and needed to conserve.
Recommended drought status map dated 7/25 was adopted as presented.
Steve McIntosh explained that the Department of Natural Resources has completed 30 + plus water supply engineering analyses for reservoirs and streams that have been experiencing water shortages. Lake bathymetry products that are valuable to local communities to determine their water holding capacity. The bathymetry and GIS results, lake contours and surface area-depth-volume tables are used to determine if and how well the lakes can sustain themselves through the drought of record. PDWP-WRP holds workshops and training sessions to train community water superintendents, water resources engineers, managers or decision makers of our regional offices on how to do water demand and supply analysis to solve their water problems. Some of the systems evaluated include Butler, Monroe City, Green City, Shelbina, Milan, Trenton, Brookfield, Stansberry, Eagleville, Jamesport Ridgeway, Marceline, Holden, Memphis, Dearborn, King City, Shelbina, Lamar, Concordia, Hamilton, Higginsville, Sedalia, Cameron, Higginsville. We have also performed drought water supply assessments for sole river water suppliers including Trenton, Popular Bluff, and the City of Joplin.
Mr. Staake announced that DAC member Jerry Lane is retiring after 18 years with PDWP as Program Director and 34 years total of state service.
Mr. Staake suggested that we need to meet monthly now in order to stay on top of problems.
The next DAC meeting is scheduled for September 5, 2003 at 10 a.m. in the Roaring River Conference Room 1738 E. Elm Street, Jefferson City, Missouri.
These updates will be available at our Web site (www.dnr.mo.gov/geology/droughtupdate.htm) or call 800-361-4827. Mr. McIntosh announced that minutes of the meetings would be posted on the Website.
