Missouri Drought Assessment Committee

Drought Assessment Committee Meeting - Sept. 5, 2003

Attendees:

Adnan Akyuz, Bob Bailey, Clif Baumer, Deana Cash, Sherry Chen, Kerry Cordray, Gene Danekas, Chad Davis, Harold Deckerd, Dave Dillon, Scott Dummer, Jerry Edwards, Joe Engeln, Pat Guinan, Mubarak Hamed, Charles Hays, Tony Hoover, John Hummel, Mike Keith, Tim Kelley, Jud Kneuvean, Chris May, Steve McIntosh, Bryant McNally, Bob Miller, Sally Oxenhandler, Breck Summerford, Lloyd Waite and Bobby Williams

Agencies Represented:

Premium Standard Farms, University of Missouri-Columbia, Sullivan County Commission, Sullivan County PWSD #1, Trenton Municipal Utilities, Farm Service Agency, National Weather Service, Natural Resource Conservation Service, US Army Corps of Engineers’ Kansas City District, US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistic Service, US Geological Survey, State Emergency Management Agency and the Missouri Departments of Agriculture, Conservation, Health and Senior Services and Natural Resources

Welcome and Introductions:

Joe Engeln, Missouri Department of Natural Resources.

Climate and Data Committee Report - Scott Dummer, NOAA

  • Discussion of drought monitor map dated 8/26/03 – NW MO and North Central Missouri were listed in D2 status
  • Discussion of drought monitor map dated 9/2/03 – Some relief provided by Labor Day rains
  • Weekend rains brought D2 status more in north and northwest area of Missouri
  • Short term relief only but it was over a four-day period so allowed soaking into the soil
  • Drought severity index by division dated 8/30/03
  • NWS WSRAAD map – total rainfall from 9/2/03 shows close to 10 inches in Kansas City area down to 1 to 1.5 inches in Maryville
  • Precipitation in inches from 8/27/03 to 9/2/03 from NOAA Regional Climate Center
  • Monthly Rainfall by County (August 2003) – Far Northwest Missouri averaged 1 to 2 inches but with Labor Day Weekend rain it increased rainfall in Buchanan, DeKalb, Daviess and Grundy. Clinton had 4 to 5 inches.
  • Percent of Normal Precipitation 9/3/01 to 9/2/03 – Northwest and Western Missouri have received brunt of long-term drought over the last few years. Southeast area of state has been a little wetter than normal in last few years.
  • 10-day outlook for temperature probability – calling for above normal temperature probability for this time of year.
  • 10-day outlook for precipitation probability – calling for below normal precipitation probability for this time of year, compared to climatology
  • Precipitation outlook for three month period – equal chance to go either way
  • Temp outlook for three month period – equal chance to go either way

Impact Team Reports

Agricultural - Tony Hoover, Missouri Department of Agriculture

  • Discussion of handouts
  • Crop report will be available, through Gene Danekas and his staff, on September 11 to estimate the yields.
  • Several farmers had already cut corn for silage in northern Missouri.
  • Several farmers were in process of cutting beans for hay and silage but recent rains may help the beans and reduce cutting for hay and silage if conditions continue to improve.
  • Pastures in some areas are starting to green up from the recent rains, which may reduce hay feeding.
  • Recommendation is to let grasses come on before you start grazing too early.
  • Drought web page sparked interest from homeowners and farmers.
  • Governor Holden has asked for damage assessment reports for all counties in Missouri due to the drought.
  • Peter Hofherr has been touring around state assessing drought damage and discussing options with farmers. He observed that some counties have been moved out of Phase 1, but those counties "seem to be split on severity of the drought since part of the county got more rain than the other half."
  • Crop report – state feed lab ran total of five alpha toxin samples on corn. All came back negative. The lab will run tests on every drought stricken county in the state.
  • Highlights for the state average on crops.
    • 90% soybeans are setting pods
    • 18% soybeans are turning color
    • 87% of the corn is dented
    • 87% of the corn is dented
    • 52% of the corn is mature
    • 58% of the sorghum is turning color
    • Bootheel is still pretty green
    • Topsoil moisture jumped to 61% being adequate and 11% surplus for the state average
    • Northwest and West Central Missouri reported 37% short or very short
    • Pasture condition ratings are 46% very poor, 29% poor, 18% fair with only 1% to 6% in good to excellent condition.
    • Ponds still remain low because most of the rain came slowly and soaked in almost immediately.
  • Powerpoint picture tour showing trip that Gene Danekas and Tony Hoover took to northwest Missouri.
    • Showed slide show of drought damage
    • Large cracks in the ground in Carroll County
    • Corn – averaged as low as 25 bushels per acre up to 180 or 190 bushels per acre with some immediate neighboring fields having drastic differences. The time the crops were planted seemed to the be critical factor in yield.
    • A dry stream bed in Caldwell County located beside a cornfield looks like a late autumn scene
    • Corn pix showed an average ear at five inches long with non-uniform kernels or no kernel development
    • Farmers cut beans for silage or hay – left parts of beans for insurance purposes so agents can check
    • Pix of farmers hauling water – grass is very brown in background pastures – looks like autumn
    • Soybean field in Andrew County – some areas of the field look good, yet the beans in the foreground have dropped their leaves in order to protect themselves to set the pods. Some bean development in the pods, but nothing like those where they had received rain.
    • Bilby Ranch Lake in Atchison County – shows dropdown of water level due to drought on the bank of the lake.
    • Grasshopper damage in Gentry County. Grasshoppers inundated the first 10 or 15 feet of these fields.
    • Dry cracked land in Gentry County. Some of the cracks measured up to 21 inches deep and at least 3 inches wide.
    • USDA CRP Counties approved – counties include: Atchison, Holt, Nodaway, Buchanan, Platte, Clay, Jackson, Clinton, Worth, Gentry, Harrison, Daviess, Caldwell, Ray, Lafayette, Livingston, Putnam, Sullivan and Howard.
  • Tim – new farm bill allows hay or graze provision – need info about CRP provision.

Have not had time to evaluate improvement due to weekend rainfall. Will need to assess soybean improvement; there may be some but probably not a lot.

Public Drinking Water Supplies – Deana Cash – Missouri Department of Natural Resources

  • Sullivan County, Milan, Greene City and Grundy County are still seeing problems.
  • Rains did not create much runoff – it was absorbed into the soil.
  • Ponds and streams still low. Milan is still proceeding with getting a permanent intake put into Locust Creek.
  • Plans and specs have been approved and funded from USDA and DNR yet some of the bidding procedures may extend start of construction well into the winter months, which could push completion of the project into March or April.
  • Need to request variance on bidding procedures and any other process that might hold up the construction so they can get started now.
  • If we have to wait until January, the weather may cause further delays. And they would be out of water by March if rains don’t impact the flow of Locust Creek and the levels in the reservoirs.
  • Estimating only 180 days left in storage without significant precipitation.
  • Green City indicated their lake levels significantly low and is working with Sullivan County to construct water lines to connect the two systems.
  • Kansas City area shows some improvement. Reservoir water levels have improved for the systems of concern mentioned at the last DAC meeting, including: Creighton, Drexler, Garden City, King City and Middlefork, but we continue to monitor.
  • Creighton shows a 1 ft increase, Drexler 1 to 1 ½ feet – but both are still on restriction.
  • Garden City saw some improvement in their lakes from 1 to 1 ½ feet.
  • King City pumped from the south to the north lake and showed ½ foot improvement on north with a 1 ft decrease on the south, but the Department of Conservation is working with King City to supply water from Limpe Lake to supplement their reservoirs.
  • Maryville only registered about ½ inch of rain and their lake level is 69 inches below normal.

Middlefork registered about 1 inch of rain; their lake level is still low also.

Environmental Impact Team – Bob Miller

Forestry

  • Drought adding a lot of stress to trees. Trees are dropping leaves in order to conserve water.
  • Significant mortality of old and weak trees and very high mortality of seedlings is expected through the northern and western portions of the state.
  • Significant mortality is also occurring in urban trees, again being more pronounced in newer plantings.
  • Expected reduction in mast production and/or quality could cause significant wildlife food shortages during fall/winter.
  • Final results on level of red oak borer activity this year are not complete, but this is an emergence year and levels are expected to be very high. For now, it appears to be lower than anticipated, but is still higher than normal and will ad to additional stress brought on by drought. Combination of these factors will certainly add to oak decline problems, causing significant mortality especially on poorer south and west slopes throughout the state.
  • Consolidated efforts must continue to provide information and management recommendations to landowners to deal with these threats to healthy forests. Various federal cost-share programs, administered through MDC are available to private landowners to undertake management practices that could reduce the impact of oak decline on their woodlands.
  • Cost share available through Forest Service and USDA to help with oak borer damage.

Fire Risks

  • Increased wildfires are occurring related to dry conditions and a very active fall fire season is expected if things don’t change. In terms of preparation, MDC staff are gearing up for fire suppression and continuing to provide equipment and assistance to fire departments.
  • Eighty-six Missouri fire departments have received more than $5 million in firefighter grants from the US Fire Administration, a division of the Emergency Preparedness and Response Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security.
  • The grant program assists rural, urban and suburban fire departments.
  • Funds are used by firefighters to increase effectiveness of fire fighting operations, health and safety programs, new fire apparatus, Emergency Medical Service programs, and Fire Prevention and Safety Programs.
  • Twenty-one Fire Departments received grants totaling more than $1 million in funding announcements since August 22.

Fisheries

  • Conditions continue to worsen in Northwest and North Central Missouri. Many streams are almost dry with only pools remaining.
  • Fish kills have resulted in most Northwestern oxbow lakes as pumping and aeration continues. A major fish kill has resulted in pickup and removal of fish from Sugar Lake in Lewis and Clark State Park.
  • MDC staff and King City staff are setting up pumps on Limpp Community Lake in Gentry County to supplement King City water supply. Pumping is planned to fill portable tanks for livestock owners. Television coverage has been arranged by Rep. Guest to make producers aware of water availability.
  • King City removed 16 million gallons (140-day supply ) of water from Limpp Lake in 1990. Conditions are expected to allow the same amount again this year.
  • Preparations made to supplement Cameron Water system from the Pony Express Conservation Area Lake if Grindstone Lake reaches emergency levels.
  • Drought is primary cause for a system-wide 10% drop in rainbow trout production in 2002, 2003 and projected for 2004 as well. This has resulted in reduced stocking rates at trout parks, Lake Taneycomo, and numerous other fisheries that are managed with stocked rainbow trout.
  • Reduced spring flows are directly linked to decreased production.
  • Bluff Spring at Montauk Fish Hatchery normally puts out 9 to 10 million gallons per day (mgd). It has continued to drop during the summer with low reading of 1.6 mgd on August 26, 2003.
  • Roaring River Spring at Roaring River Fish Hatchery has an average daily flow of 20 mgd. Optimally it takes about 12 mgd to run the hatchery with a minimum of 8 mgd needed. It has been necessary to pump water back to the spring pool all summer because spring flow has been at or below 5 mgd or lower. On August 28, 2003 spring flow was 3.7 mgd. Roaring River Hatchery has been operating at 50% for a long time now.
  • Water quality, disease, added handling, increased transfers of stock within the system, reduced feeding efficiency are some of the problems that become magnified under present conditions.

Wildlife

  • Squaw Creek National Refuge low water conditions are adequate for migration habitat, but will be susceptible to early freeze up and reduce both habitat use days and viewing trips for local economic generation.
  • Fountain Grove Conservation Area unable to pump hunting pools due to low water conditions in Grand River so no water is available for the teal hunting season.
  • Habitat loss for migrating wetland birds will be significant and local businesses will miss the hunters normally traveling to the Fountain Grove Area.

Miscellaneous

  • Bob Steiert, the EPA representative to the Impact Team will be retiring as of September 19, 2003. Bob’s replacement has not been named yet.

MoVOAD’s Position on Local Government Soliciting Disaster Donations

  • Missouri Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster (MoVOAD) operates on budgets based on donations from members, private and public businesses and the general public.
  • During a disaster, many donors donate to these organizations.
  • In the past several years, some local governments or other political jurisdictions have solicited donations and established 800 phone numbers to coordinate or solicit disaster donations from the public or business community.
  • The "competition" for private donations has decreased the amount of cash available to voluntary organizations. It negatively impacts the ability of the organizations to provide emergency relief and rehabilitation to disaster "victims."
  • MoVOAD asks county and municipal governments to recognize and adopt FEMA’s Donations Management Policies related to Cash Donations following a disaster.
  • Local governments should establish policies that refer potential donors to voluntary organizations that are providing services to disaster victims.
  • Local governments should not solicit or accept private donations from the public.
  • SEMA’s practices, plans, public information and training have been and continue to be consistent with the National VOAD’s position on Government Soliciting Disaster Donations.

Lake Bathymetry and RESOP Analysis – Steve McIntosh, Missouri Department of Natural Resources

  • Discussion of Reservoir Operation Study Computer Program (RESOP)
  • Jerry Edwards and Sherry Chen assist in running this
  • Purpose is to assist in planning, design and evaluation of reservoirs, which must meet water supply and demand requirements
  • The results compute a monthly water balance for a reservoir system based on inflow, outflow and reservoir storage data.
  • The advantage is that mathematics is relatively simple, multiple reservoirs in a system can be analyzed and up to 50 years of reservoir operation can be computed.
  • Program shows inflow to reservoir including runoff from watershed, rainfall on water surface of reservoir, outside pumping and release from an upstream reservoir.
  • Program shows outflow such as seepage, evaporation, spillage from dam and usage/demand.
  • Program shows demand such as low flow, irrigation, municipal and other requirements.
  • Control Input includes reservoir storage, drainage area, initial storage and limits.
  • General Input includes evaporation coefficient, first year of records, seepage, rainfall, runoff, evaporation and demand.
  • Outputs contain detailed information on each of the water balance aspects for each reservoir and year of operation.
  • Expensive to do bathymetric maps, but it is required due to not being able to use original lake plans because increase in sedimentation over the years takes up storage space. Unable to calculate with original maps.
  • Currently finishing up Creighton, Drexel, Holden and Adrian bathymetric maps
  • Contract with USGS to do six more next year and running RESOP
  • Lot of smaller systems in Northern Missouri – they can’t get good groundwater so these smaller systems are all they can afford.
  • Green City averages 0.6% sedimentation per year. They have a sedimentation pond to defer to so they have been figuring 2% as a sedimentation rate (per Deana Cash).

Drought Status Discussion and Approval – Scott Dummer, NOAA

  • Discussion of map dated 7/25/03 – included far Northwest in Phase 3, West Central in Phase 2
  • Central strip from top to bottom, including Lawrence and Jasper to the west in Phase 1
  • Interim drought status as of 8/12/03, Phase 3 increased by a few counties, Phase 2 increased over into Central Missouri and Phase 1 increased over into Eastern Missouri and farther down into Central Missouri and towards the Bootheel.
  • Interim drought status as of 9/3/03
  • Recent rains helped some but not enough
  • Phase 1 has retreated from eastern part of state, but still covering Central Missouri top to bottom and portions of Western Missouri. Phase 2 has retreated down to only 7 counties in Western Missouri. Phase 3 has retreated to extreme Northwest Missouri.
  • Rainfall kept us from going to Phase 4 for Northwest Missouri.
  • Tony Hoover pointed out Ralls County (eastern Missouri border) seems to be very dry and should be put back on advisory phase. It may be that showers were very spotty and half the county was very good and half was bad
  • Joe Engeln commented that this showed more short-term rather than long term for the other counties.
  • General discussion of soil moisture conditions throughout the state. Still very low in the most part for Northern Missouri.
  • Recent rains obviously were soaked up into the ground, rather than allowing runoff, but where did it really go? Will it show any improvement in next few weeks?
  • Recommendation agreed upon to add Ralls County to advisory phase.
  • Calls from people in Franklin and Gasconade counties regarding individual reports of crop damage
  • Peter Hofher will be visiting those areas to take a closer look.
  • Deana commented that even though they’re not officially in Phase 1, we still use some data to monitor them
  • Steve McIntosh is still concerned about Atchison, Nodaway, Worth and Harrison Counties in far Northwest Missouri.
  • Joe Engeln commented that the Climate Committee would be meeting more frequently.
  • The US Drought Monitor still shows the majority of Missouri in drought status
  • Missouri has never made it to a D4 under our own level of measurement.
  • General discussion regarding comparison of our drought status map vs. the US Drought Monitor and what counties to add to what phases.

Recommendation to use drought status map dated 8/12/03 and delete southeastern group, but leaving in the fringe of counties bordering eastern Missouri including Osage, Gasconade, Montgomery, Lincoln, Pike, Shelby and Ralls.

These updates will be available at our Web site (/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm) or call 800-361-4827.

The next DAC meeting is scheduled for October 9, 2003 from 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon at Route 66 Conference Room, 1738 Elm St, Jefferson City, MO.  

Mr. McIntosh announced that minutes of the meetings would be posted on the Website.


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